Publication
"Geopolitical Risk, Supply Chains, and Global Inflation" (with Linda Schwartz Carmy, Md. Rezwanul Hoque, and Hakan Yilmazkuday), The World Economy, 2024.
"Geopolitical Risk, Supply Chains, and Global Inflation" (with Linda Schwartz Carmy, Md. Rezwanul Hoque, and Hakan Yilmazkuday), The World Economy, 2024.
Job Market Paper: Uncertain Times, Rising Prices: A Global Analysis of Geopolitical Risk and Inflation Dynamics
This study explores how global geopolitical risk shocks influence inflation across various economiesfor the monthly data 2003M1-2023M9. Using a structural vector autoregression model, we analyze the impact of global geopolitical risks while controlling for global oil prices, national industrial production, national nominal effective exchange rates, and national policy rates. In the long term, empirical results reveal that a one standard deviation shock in global geopolitical risks increases inflation (by 1.14%) for the pooled sample of advanced economies, (by 1.38%) for the pooled sample of European Union, and (by 0.83%) for the pooled sample of oil- producing countries. In contrast, the results are insignificant for the pooled sample of emerging markets and developing economies, non-oil- producing countries, and the United Sates. A theoretical framework is developed to mathematically demonstrate the transmission of geopolitical risk to inflation through energy and exchange rate channels, providing structural support for the empirical findings. As country-specific inflation tends to follow inflation trends in categories of economies, several policy implications are implemented.
Global Supply Chain Disruptions and Stock Prices: A Bayesian Approach
The Impact of Geopolitical Risk and Supply Chain Pressures on U.S. Inflation and Inflation Expectations
Exploring How U.S. Tariffs Influence Inflation Expectations from a Structural Simulation Model